2023-24 · Regular Season · Final

Denver Nuggets at Oklahoma City Thunder

Sunday, October 29, 2023 · tip-off time not recorded

DEN 0–0@OKC 0–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
DEN Denver Nuggets	111	128	+17
OKC Oklahoma City Thunder (home)	114	95	−19

Forecast: Oklahoma City Thunder to win, 61% win probability, projected margin 3.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	DEN	OKC
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1644	1540
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	−35
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	+4.7	+2.1
Games played this season	2	2
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	115.5	115.6
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	107.8	112.5
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	98.3
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	0.0	0.0
Rest days	2	2
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingDEN1644OKC1540

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

DEN1644

Ended last season at 1676 → started this one at 1632
This season's 2 games: +12.0

WLAL119–107+6.5
W@MEM108–104+5.5

OKC1540

Ended last season at 1513 → started this one at 1510
This season's 2 games: +29.8

W@CHI124–104+22.2
W@CLE108–105+7.6

Season scoring marginDEN+4.7OKC+2.1

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

DEN+4.7

Scores 113.5, allows 105.5 over 2 games: +8.0 a game.

10% this season (+8.0) + 90% last season (+4.3) = +4.7

OKC+2.1

Scores 116.0, allows 104.5 over 2 games: +11.5 a game.

10% this season (+11.5) + 90% last season (+1.1) = +2.1

Offensive rating, last 10DEN115.5OKC115.6

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23: 114.0).

DEN115.5scored, +1.5 vs league

Factor	DEN	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.8%	54.6%	+1.8
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.7%	11.9%	+1.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	22.0%	23.8%	−0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.189	0.210	−0.6
Everything else			−0.6

OKC115.6scored, +1.6 vs league

Factor	OKC	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.3%	54.6%	−1.9
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.4%	11.9%	+2.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	22.8%	23.8%	−0.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.244	0.210	+1.0
Everything else			+0.8

Defensive rating, last 10DEN107.8OKC112.5

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23: 114.0).

DEN107.8allowed, −6.3 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	49.1%	54.6%	+8.3
Turnovers (TOV%)	9.9%	11.9%	−2.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	21.4%	23.8%	+1.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.199	0.210	+0.3
Everything else			−0.6

OKC112.5allowed, −1.6 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.1%	54.6%	−0.8
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.2%	11.9%	+1.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	25.6%	23.8%	−0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.189	0.210	+0.6
Everything else			+0.8

Pace, last 10average 98.3

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

DEN 94.5 and OKC 102.0 → average 98.3 (league 2022-23: 99.6)

Rotation points missingDEN0.0OKC0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

DEN0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2023-10-29 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.

OKC0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2023-10-29 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.

RestDEN2 daysOKC2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

DEN2days

Last played Oct 27 against MEM.

OKC2days

Last played Oct 27 against CLE.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

DEN

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Oct 27	@MEM	108–104	41-88	14-37	12-18	17	6	104.9	101.0	103.0
Oct 24	LAL	119–107	48-91	14-34	9-12	11	9	125.3	111.5	95.5
Jun 12	MIA	94–89	38-84	5-28	13-23	14	11	97.9	93.7	95.5
Jun 9	@MIA	108–95	39-79	14-28	16-21	6	5	118.7	104.4	91.0
Jun 7	@MIA	109–94	41-80	5-18	22-27	13	13	117.2	102.2	92.5
Jun 4	MIA	108–111	39-75	11-28	19-22	13	9	124.1	129.1	86.5
Jun 1	MIA	104–93	40-79	8-27	16-20	10	6	111.8	100.0	93.0
May 22	@LAL	113–111	41-85	12-33	19-22	8	11	127.0	123.3	89.5
May 20	@LAL	119–108	44-88	17-41	14-19	5	5	122.7	111.3	97.0
May 18	LAL	108–103	39-89	14-38	16-18	15	11	105.9	101.0	102.0

OKC

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Oct 27	@CLE	108–105	40-87	13-26	15-19	18	6	102.9	100.0	105.0
Oct 25	@CHI	124–104	45-82	19-39	15-18	15	5	124.0	105.1	99.5
Apr 9	MEM	115–100	45-90	12-36	13-16	14	8	113.9	98.0	101.5
Apr 6	@UTA	114–98	39-97	15-45	21-26	12	17	109.6	95.1	103.5
Apr 4	@GSW	125–136	44-93	11-32	26-35	10	13	123.8	132.0	102.0
Apr 2	PHX	118–128	36-88	11-32	35-41	8	13	119.2	132.0	98.0
Mar 31	@IND	117–121	42-88	4-30	29-34	10	11	111.4	115.2	105.0
Mar 29	DET	107–106	39-87	10-29	19-25	9	10	113.8	112.8	94.0
Mar 28	CHA	134–137	50-96	11-30	23-29	11	7	120.7	124.5	110.5
Mar 26	@POR	118–112	41-94	12-35	24-28	11	13	116.8	109.8	101.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2023-24 surprise games

39%

pregame chance the forecast gave DEN, the winner

the forecast favored OKC

36 pts

margin miss

forecast +3, actual −33 for OKC

175th

most surprising result of 2023-24

of 1,312 graded games

21st

largest margin miss of 2023-24

outcome surprise 0.94 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	DEN	OKC
Final score	128	95
Field goals	53–88 · 60.2%	37–90 · 41.1%
Three-pointers	11–27 · 40.7%	6–32 · 18.8%
Free throws	11–13 · 84.6%	15–18 · 83.3%
Rebounds	48	29
Assists	34	22
Turnovers	13	9
Steals	8	8
Blocks	5	4

How the model does with these teams over time: Denver Nuggets · Oklahoma City Thunder

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (OKC)	+3	−33	−36
Total points	225	223	−2
DEN points	111	128	+17
OKC points	114	95	−19

Score by quarter

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Final
DEN	34	35	28	31	–	128
OKC	23	28	24	20	–	95

Recent form before this game

Denver Nuggets

Date	Opponent	Result
Oct 27	at MEM	W 108–104
Oct 24	vs LAL	W 119–107
Jun 12	vs MIA	W 94–89
Jun 9	at MIA	W 108–95
Jun 7	at MIA	W 109–94

Oklahoma City Thunder

Date	Opponent	Result
Oct 27	at CLE	W 108–105
Oct 25	at CHI	W 124–104
Apr 9	vs MEM	W 115–100
Apr 6	at UTA	W 114–98
Apr 4	at GSW	L 125–136

Previous meetings

Date	Matchup	Score
Jan 22 2022-23	OKC at DEN	OKC 101 – 99 DEN
Nov 23 2022-23	DEN at OKC	DEN 131 – 126 OKC
Nov 3 2022-23	DEN at OKC	DEN 122 – 110 OKC
Oct 22 2022-23	OKC at DEN	OKC 117 – 122 DEN
Mar 26 2021-22	OKC at DEN	OKC 107 – 113 DEN