2026-27 · Regular Season · Final

Orlando Magic at Phoenix Suns

Thursday, November 5, 2026 · tip-off 9:00 PM ET

ORL 2–5@PHX 1–5 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
ORL Orlando Magic	112	104	−8
PHX Phoenix Suns (home)	117	117	±0

Forecast: Phoenix Suns to win, 64% win probability, projected margin 5.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	ORL	PHX
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1494	1477
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+54
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−2.9	−2.9
Games played this season	7	6
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	106.0	112.0
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	116.6	125.5
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	97.5
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	32.5	7.8
Rest days	3	1
Second night of a back-to-back	No	Yes

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingORL1494PHX1477

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

ORL1494

Ended last season at 1550 → started this one at 1538
This season's 7 games: −44.0

LATL125–132−11.1
LMIN93–115−19.0
W@NYK111–102+19.8
L@TOR99–129−15.5
W@TOR121–114+12.3
LBOS97–108−10.3
LWAS94–103−20.2

PHX1477

Ended last season at 1531 → started this one at 1523
This season's 6 games: −46.2

L@POR83–124−22.0
WGSW131–122+5.2
L@OKC114–125−3.2
LDEN120–127−8.7
L@GSW113–116−4.3
LPOR119–132−13.2

Season scoring marginORL−2.9PHX−2.9

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

ORL−2.9

Scores 105.7, allows 114.7 over 7 games: −9.0 a game.

35% this season (−9.0) + 65% last season (+0.5) = −2.9

PHX−2.9

Scores 113.3, allows 124.3 over 6 games: −11.0 a game.

30% this season (−11.0) + 70% last season (+0.6) = −2.9

Offensive rating, last 10ORL106.0PHX112.0

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2026-27 to date: 112.2).

ORL106.0scored, −6.2 vs league

Factor	ORL	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.1%	53.3%	−1.8
Turnovers (TOV%)	14.5%	13.3%	−1.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	22.2%	27.2%	−2.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.230	0.226	+0.1
Everything else			−0.5

PHX112.0scored, −0.2 vs league

Factor	PHX	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.8%	53.3%	−0.8
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.0%	13.3%	+0.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	27.7%	27.2%	+0.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.199	0.226	−0.8
Everything else			+0.7

Defensive rating, last 10ORL116.6PHX125.5

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2026-27 to date: 112.2).

ORL116.6allowed, +4.4 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.0%	53.3%	−1.1
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.1%	13.3%	−1.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	30.6%	27.2%	−1.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.238	0.226	−0.3
Everything else			+0.2

PHX125.5allowed, +13.3 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	57.3%	53.3%	−6.1
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.8%	13.3%	−2.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	33.4%	27.2%	−2.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.268	0.226	−1.2
Everything else			−1.3

Pace, last 10average 97.5

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

ORL 96.5 and PHX 98.4 → average 97.5 (league 2026-27 to date: 100.5)

Rotation points missingORL32.5PHX7.8

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

ORL32.5pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Paolo Banchero	24.5	33.8	2
Jalen Suggs	8.0	33.4	3

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-05 20:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

PHX7.8pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Jordan Goodwin	7.8	18.7	5

Source: official injury report, 2026-11-05 20:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestORL3 daysPHX1 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

ORL3days

Last played Nov 2 against WAS.

PHX1day, back-to-back

Last played Nov 4 against POR.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

ORL

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Nov 2	WAS	94–103	37-80	11-39	9-10	17	7	104.4	112.0	91.0
Nov 1	BOS	97–108	34-81	14-39	15-19	16	13	104.3	116.1	93.0
Oct 30	@TOR	121–114	39-74	18-34	25-29	13	9	131.5	125.3	91.5
Oct 28	@TOR	99–129	33-80	10-35	23-29	20	9	98.0	125.2	102.0
Oct 25	@NYK	111–102	38-88	18-42	17-21	15	10	112.1	102.0	99.5
Oct 23	MIN	93–115	37-84	8-39	11-19	16	8	92.1	113.9	101.0
Oct 21	ATL	125–132	41-85	13-40	30-39	20	9	114.7	118.9	110.0
May 3	@DET	94–116	31-75	10-30	22-30	13	9	102.2	126.1	92.0
May 1	DET	79–93	27-78	9-36	16-21	10	8	89.8	105.7	88.0
Apr 29	@DET	109–116	38-80	17-38	16-30	16	8	111.2	120.8	97.0

PHX

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Nov 4	POR	119–132	41-92	10-36	27-31	12	14	114.4	126.9	104.0
Nov 2	@GSW	113–116	40-85	11-30	22-30	15	9	114.1	117.2	99.0
Oct 30	DEN	120–127	46-94	18-42	10-11	15	15	122.4	129.6	98.0
Oct 26	@OKC	114–125	39-91	18-50	18-25	12	14	117.5	127.6	97.5
Oct 24	GSW	131–122	50-86	14-37	17-22	15	9	129.7	119.6	101.5
Oct 21	@POR	83–124	30-84	6-32	17-23	15	13	86.5	126.5	97.0
Apr 27	OKC	122–131	48-90	14-39	12-16	12	10	125.8	136.5	96.5
Apr 25	OKC	109–121	38-87	13-41	20-23	11	9	111.2	122.2	98.5
Apr 22	@OKC	107–120	39-85	11-31	18-22	21	15	108.1	120.0	99.5
Apr 19	@OKC	84–119	29-83	13-39	13-18	17	13	90.3	129.3	92.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2026-27 surprise games

64%

pregame chance the forecast gave PHX, the winner

PHX was the forecast favorite

8 pts

margin miss

forecast +5, actual +13 for PHX

83rd

most surprising result of 2026-27

of 146 graded games so far

79th

largest margin miss of 2026-27

outcome surprise 0.45 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	ORL	PHX
Final score	104	117
Field goals	39–81 · 48.1%	45–87 · 51.7%
Three-pointers	13–38 · 34.2%	17–34 · 50.0%
Free throws	13–24 · 54.2%	10–13 · 76.9%
Rebounds	48	33
Assists	28	30
Turnovers	25	14
Steals	9	14
Blocks	3	3

How the model does with these teams over time: Orlando Magic · Phoenix Suns

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (PHX)	+5	+13	+8
Total points	229	221	−8
ORL points	112	104	−8
PHX points	117	117	±0

Injury report

Official NBA injury report, 2026-11-05 20:30 ET (the latest stored report before the forecast was saved). Two-way and G League assignments are omitted. The model counts players listed Out or Doubtful; Questionable players are treated as available.

Orlando Magic

Out Izaiyah Nelson
Out Jalen Suggs
Out Jonathan Isaac
Out Noah Penda
Out Paolo Banchero

Phoenix Suns

Out Jordan Goodwin · Right Calf Soreness
Out Mark Williams · Left Shoulder Surgery
Out Rasheer Fleming · Left Ankle Sprain

Recent form before this game

Orlando Magic

Date	Opponent	Result
Nov 2	vs WAS	L 94–103
Nov 1	vs BOS	L 97–108
Oct 30	at TOR	W 121–114
Oct 28	at TOR	L 99–129
Oct 25	at NYK	W 111–102

Phoenix Suns

Date	Opponent	Result
Nov 4	vs POR	L 119–132
Nov 2	at GSW	L 113–116
Oct 30	vs DEN	L 120–127
Oct 26	at OKC	L 114–125
Oct 24	vs GSW	W 131–122

Previous meetings

Date	Matchup	Score
Mar 31 2025-26	PHX at ORL	PHX 111 – 115 ORL
Feb 21 2025-26	ORL at PHX	ORL 110 – 113 PHX
Dec 8 2024-25	PHX at ORL	PHX 110 – 115 ORL
Nov 18 2024-25	ORL at PHX	ORL 109 – 99 PHX
Jan 28 2023-24	PHX at ORL	PHX 98 – 113 ORL

Forecast and result

Inside the Forecast

Built from the box scores

The result against the forecast

Where the forecast differed from the result

Injury report

Orlando Magic

Phoenix Suns

Recent form before this game

Orlando Magic

Phoenix Suns

Previous meetings