The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Apr 19

2025-26 · Playoffs · Final

Orlando Magic at Detroit Pistons

Sunday, April 19, 2026 · tip-off 6:30 PM ET

ORL 3–4@DET 2–4 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: ORL 17 percent, DET 83 percent. ORL Magic 17% proj. 103 · final 112 DET Pistons · home 83% proj. 117 · final 101
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
ORL Orlando Magic 103 112 +9
DET Detroit Pistons (home) 117 101 −16

Forecast: Detroit Pistons to win, 83% win probability, projected margin 14.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputORLDET
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15411689
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +219
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +0.9+8.1
Games played this season 8381
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 112.0120.4
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 112.3107.8
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 101.7
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.00.0
Rest days 55
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo
Playoff series state 0 home series wins

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingORL1541DET1689

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

ORL1541

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1506 → started this one at 1505
  2. First 73 games: +21.6
  3. Last 10 games: +14.2
  • WSAC121–117+1.8
  • L@TOR87–139−25.7
  • WPHX115–111+5.5
  • LATL101–130−21.5
  • W@DAL138–127+8.0
  • W@NOP112–108+5.9
  • WDET123–107+20.4
  • WMIN132–120+9.8
  • W@CHI127–103+12.7
  • L@BOS108–113−2.7

DET1689

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1543 → started this one at 1532
  2. First 71 games: +114.9
  3. Last 10 games: +42.6
  • WNOP129–108+4.9
  • W@MIN109–87+16.4
  • L@OKC110–114−3.7
  • WTOR127–116+4.8
  • WMIN113–108+3.3
  • W@PHI116–93+13.0
  • L@ORL107–123−20.4
  • WMIL137–111+2.9
  • W@CHA118–100+18.2
  • W@IND133–121+3.2
Season scoring marginORL+0.9DET+8.1

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

ORL+0.9

Scores 116.0, allows 115.1 over 83 games: +0.9 a game.

DET+8.1

Scores 117.7, allows 109.6 over 81 games: +8.1 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10ORL112.0DET120.4

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.8).

ORL112.0scored, −2.8 vs league

FactorORLLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.4%54.7%−2.0
Turnovers (TOV%)14.8%12.2%−3.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.3%26.0%−0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2920.209+2.4
Everything else+0.9

DET120.4scored, +5.6 vs league

FactorDETLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)59.4%54.7%+7.1
Turnovers (TOV%)13.8%12.2%−2.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)32.6%26.0%+3.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2200.209+0.3
Everything else−2.5
Defensive rating, last 10ORL112.3DET107.8

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.8).

ORL112.3allowed, −2.5 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.9%54.7%−0.3
Turnovers (TOV%)13.5%12.2%+1.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)22.0%26.0%+1.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2210.209−0.3
Everything else−0.5

DET107.8allowed, −7.0 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.0%54.7%+5.6
Turnovers (TOV%)13.0%12.2%+1.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)22.9%26.0%+1.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2400.209−0.9
Everything else−0.3
Pace, last 10average 101.7

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

ORL 104.5 and DET 99.0 → average 101.7 (league 2025-26 to date: 100.2)

Rotation points missingORL0.0DET0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

ORL0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-04-19 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

DET0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-04-19 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.

RestORL5 daysDET5 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

ORL5days

Last played Apr 12 against BOS (7 days, capped at 5).

DET5days

Last played Apr 12 against IND (7 days, capped at 5).

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

ORL

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Apr 12@BOS108–11336-9112-4324-301914102.9107.6105.0
Apr 10@CHI127–10349-9413-3716-241412118.795.4107.5
Apr 8MIN132–12051-9512-2918-231619130.7118.8101.0
Apr 6DET123–10741-8111-2630-40146118.3103.9103.5
Apr 5@NOP112–10840-937-3325-361316107.7102.9104.5
Apr 3@DAL138–12747-8414-2630-37167126.6115.5109.5
Apr 1ATL101–13035-886-3225-3119896.2121.5106.0
Mar 31PHX115–11135-7910-2935-41259106.5101.8108.5
Mar 29@TOR87–13931-829-3816-1927983.7132.4104.5
Mar 26SAC121–11740-7413-2728-32127128.7123.294.5

DET

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Apr 12@IND133–12150-8915-3318-221712127.9115.2104.5
Apr 10@CHA118–10045-899-2719-261316124.2104.295.5
Apr 8MIL137–11148-8414-3027-301215145.7119.493.5
Apr 6@ORL107–12342-8510-3013-19198103.9118.3103.5
Apr 4@PHI116–9343-8711-2819-241116124.7100.093.0
Apr 2MIN113–10841-8610-2321-29129109.7103.8103.5
Mar 31TOR127–11644-7313-2326-30187128.3116.099.5
Mar 30@OKC110–11441-9716-4312-231615104.8108.695.1
Mar 28@MIN109–8743-8210-2613-171910111.287.998.5
Mar 26NOP129–10848-8515-2818-23178124.0104.9103.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2025-26 surprise games
17%
pregame chance the forecast gave ORL, the winner
the forecast favored DET
25 pts
margin miss
forecast +14, actual −11 for DET
9th
most surprising result of 2025-26
of 1,309 graded games
109th
largest margin miss of 2025-26
outcome surprise 1.78 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statORLDET
Final score112101
Field goals44–90 · 48.9%31–77 · 40.3%
Three-pointers10–34 · 29.4%10–32 · 31.3%
Free throws14–19 · 73.7%29–38 · 76.3%
Rebounds4539
Assists2619
Turnovers1214
Steals119
Blocks66

How the model does with these teams over time: Orlando Magic · Detroit Pistons

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (DET)+14−11−25
Total points220213−7
ORL points103112+9
DET points117101−16

Recent form before this game

Orlando Magic

DateOpponentResult
Apr 12 at BOS L 108–113
Apr 10 at CHI W 127–103
Apr 8 vs MIN W 132–120
Apr 6 vs DET W 123–107
Apr 5 at NOP W 112–108

Detroit Pistons

DateOpponentResult
Apr 12 at IND W 133–121
Apr 10 at CHA W 118–100
Apr 8 vs MIL W 137–111
Apr 6 at ORL L 107–123
Apr 4 at PHI W 116–93

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Apr 6 2025-26 DET at ORL DET 107 – 123 ORL
Mar 1 2025-26 DET at ORL DET 106 – 92 ORL
Nov 28 2025-26 ORL at DET ORL 112 – 109 DET
Oct 29 2025-26 ORL at DET ORL 116 – 135 DET
Jan 25 2024-25 DET at ORL DET 113 – 121 ORL