2025-26 · Regular Season · Final

Detroit Pistons at Utah Jazz

Friday, December 26, 2025 · tip-off 9:30 PM ET

DET 0–0@UTA 3–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
DET Detroit Pistons	127	129	+2
UTA Utah Jazz (home)	115	131	+16

Forecast: Detroit Pistons to win, 80% win probability, projected margin 12.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	DET	UTA
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1631	1374
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	−186
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	+6.7	−7.5
Games played this season	29	29
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	117.2	117.2
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	108.3	124.5
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	101.7
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	0.0	0.0
Rest days	3	3
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingDET1631UTA1374

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

DET1631

Ended last season at 1543 → started this one at 1532
First 19 games: +67.3
Last 10 games: +31.2

WATL99–98+2.2
L@MIL109–113−8.2
WPOR122–116+3.9
WMIL124–112+4.2
WATL142–115+9.5
W@BOS112–105+10.2
L@DAL114–116−7.0
WCHA112–86+4.7
W@POR110–102+6.8
W@SAC136–127+4.9

UTA1374

Ended last season at 1284 → started this one at 1338
First 19 games: +16.9
Last 10 games: +19.4

WHOU133–125+17.8
W@BKN123–110+13.5
L@NYK112–146−6.5
LOKC101–131−4.4
W@MEM130–126+11.4
WDAL140–133+8.1
LLAL135–143−6.1
LORL127–128−2.6
L@DEN112–135−3.7
LMEM128–137−8.1

Season scoring marginDET+6.7UTA−7.5

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

DET+6.7

Scores 119.1, allows 112.4 over 29 games: +6.7 a game.

UTA−7.5

Scores 119.9, allows 127.4 over 29 games: −7.5 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10DET117.2UTA117.2

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.9).

DET117.2scored, +2.3 vs league

Factor	DET	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.0%	54.5%	−3.8
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.6%	12.4%	+1.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	n/a	26.2%	–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.230	0.219	+0.3
Everything else			+4.7

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

UTA117.2scored, +2.4 vs league

Factor	UTA	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.7%	54.5%	+0.3
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.2%	12.4%	+1.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	n/a	26.2%	–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.261	0.219	+1.2
Everything else			−0.8

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

Defensive rating, last 10DET108.3UTA124.5

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.9).

DET108.3allowed, −6.6 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	50.2%	54.5%	+6.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	14.0%	12.4%	+2.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	n/a	26.2%	–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.279	0.219	−1.7
Everything else			−0.5

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

UTA124.5allowed, +9.6 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	59.0%	54.5%	−6.7
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.5%	12.4%	−2.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	n/a	26.2%	–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.251	0.219	−0.9
Everything else			+0.7

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

Pace, last 10average 101.7

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

DET 99.8 and UTA 103.6 → average 101.7 (league 2025-26 to date: 100.8)

Rotation points missingDET0.0UTA0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

DET0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2025-12-26 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

UTA0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2025-12-26 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.

RestDET3 daysUTA3 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

DET3days

Last played Dec 23 against SAC.

UTA3days

Last played Dec 23 against MEM.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

DET

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Dec 23	@SAC	136–127	51-95	14-32	20-28	15	–	136.0	127.0	100.0
Dec 22	@POR	110–102	44-101	7-30	15-24	8	–	113.4	106.3	96.5
Dec 20	CHA	112–86	41-93	6-28	24-32	20	–	106.7	80.4	106.0
Dec 18	@DAL	114–116	47-122	6-33	14-20	10	–	103.6	103.6	100.5
Dec 15	@BOS	112–105	41-89	13-36	17-25	10	–	117.9	112.9	94.0
Dec 12	ATL	142–115	53-91	12-29	24-29	12	–	134.0	106.5	107.0
Dec 6	MIL	124–112	43-86	15-40	23-31	15	–	127.8	116.7	96.5
Dec 5	POR	122–116	38-82	10-24	36-48	13	–	122.0	117.2	99.5
Dec 3	@MIL	109–113	38-95	14-43	19-24	14	–	112.4	115.3	97.5
Dec 1	ATL	99–98	38-86	5-26	18-24	22	–	98.0	97.0	101.0

UTA

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Dec 23	MEM	128–137	40-90	16-45	32-36	13	–	120.8	129.2	106.0
Dec 22	@DEN	112–135	41-96	14-41	16-19	14	–	104.7	127.4	106.5
Dec 20	ORL	127–128	44-105	15-43	24-30	12	–	115.5	116.4	99.6
Dec 18	LAL	135–143	43-83	18-37	31-47	13	–	131.1	138.8	103.0
Dec 15	DAL	140–133	50-97	13-36	27-33	13	–	121.7	115.7	104.2
Dec 12	@MEM	130–126	48-104	17-47	17-25	13	–	122.6	117.8	106.5
Dec 7	OKC	101–131	40-85	12-36	9-12	17	–	100.0	131.0	100.5
Dec 5	@NYK	112–146	35-87	15-42	27-35	12	–	108.7	141.7	103.0
Dec 4	@BKN	123–110	42-83	14-25	25-27	12	–	124.2	110.0	99.5
Dec 1	HOU	133–125	45-90	14-35	29-38	13	–	123.1	116.8	107.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2025-26 surprise games

20%

pregame chance the forecast gave UTA, the winner

the forecast favored DET

14 pts

margin miss

forecast −12, actual +2 for UTA

30th

most surprising result of 2025-26

of 1,309 graded games

399th

largest margin miss of 2025-26

outcome surprise 1.59 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	DET	UTA
Final score	129	131
Field goals	48–92 · 52.2%	44–90 · 48.9%
Three-pointers	18–37 · 48.6%	18–38 · 47.4%
Free throws	15–23 · 65.2%	25–26 · 96.2%
Rebounds	41	42
Assists	38	35
Turnovers	17	17
Steals	11	12
Blocks	10	8

How the model does with these teams over time: Detroit Pistons · Utah Jazz

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (UTA)	−12	+2	+14
Total points	242	260	+18
DET points	127	129	+2
UTA points	115	131	+16

Recent form before this game

Detroit Pistons

Date	Opponent	Result
Dec 23	at SAC	W 136–127
Dec 22	at POR	W 110–102
Dec 20	vs CHA	W 112–86
Dec 18	at DAL	L 114–116
Dec 15	at BOS	W 112–105

Utah Jazz

Date	Opponent	Result
Dec 23	vs MEM	L 128–137
Dec 22	at DEN	L 112–135
Dec 20	vs ORL	L 127–128
Dec 18	vs LAL	L 135–143
Dec 15	vs DAL	W 140–133

Previous meetings

Date	Matchup	Score
Nov 5 2025-26	UTA at DET	UTA 103 – 114 DET
Mar 3 2024-25	DET at UTA	DET 134 – 106 UTA
Dec 19 2024-25	UTA at DET	UTA 126 – 119 DET
Jan 3 2023-24	DET at UTA	DET 148 – 154 UTA
Dec 21 2023-24	UTA at DET	UTA 119 – 111 DET

Forecast and result

Inside the Forecast

Built from the box scores

The result against the forecast

Where the forecast differed from the result

Recent form before this game

Detroit Pistons

Utah Jazz

Previous meetings