The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Dec 6

2024-25 · Regular Season · Final

Orlando Magic at Philadelphia 76ers

Friday, December 6, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded

ORL 0–0@PHI 0–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: ORL 71 percent, PHI 29 percent. ORL Magic 71% proj. 111 · final 94 PHI 76ers · home 29% proj. 102 · final 102
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
ORL Orlando Magic 111 94 −17
PHI Philadelphia 76ers (home) 102 102 ±0

Forecast: Orlando Magic to win, 71% win probability, projected margin 9.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputORLPHI
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15861423
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court −92
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +4.8−6.2
Games played this season 2420
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 114.3107.3
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 108.1112.0
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 96.0
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 4.622.0
Rest days 22
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingORL1586PHI1423

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

ORL1586

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1531 → started this one at 1523
  2. First 14 games: +19.3
  3. Last 10 games: +43.3
  • W@PHX109–99+14.0
  • L@LAC93–104−9.7
  • W@LAL119–118+5.2
  • WDET111–100+3.8
  • W@CHA95–84+7.1
  • WCHI133–119+5.7
  • W@BKN123–100+15.8
  • W@BKN100–92+7.0
  • L@NYK106–121−10.1
  • W@PHI106–102+4.5

PHI1423

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1532 → started this one at 1524
  2. First 10 games: −87.1
  3. Last 10 games: −13.8
  • LCLE106–114−5.9
  • L@ORL86–98−5.4
  • L@MIA89–106−7.6
  • L@MEM111–117−4.8
  • WBKN113–98+10.7
  • LLAC99–125−16.5
  • LHOU115–122−5.5
  • W@DET111–96+17.7
  • W@CHA110–104+8.0
  • LORL102–106−4.5
Season scoring marginORL+4.8PHI−6.2

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

ORL+4.8

Scores 107.9, allows 103.0 over 24 games: +4.8 a game.

PHI−6.2

Scores 105.2, allows 111.4 over 20 games: −6.2 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10ORL114.3PHI107.3

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 112.6).

ORL114.3scored, +1.8 vs league

FactorORLLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.8%54.1%−0.4
Turnovers (TOV%)12.8%12.5%−0.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)30.0%24.8%+2.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2290.198+0.9
Everything else−0.7

PHI107.3scored, −5.3 vs league

FactorPHILeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.5%54.1%−4.0
Turnovers (TOV%)12.4%12.5%+0.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)22.0%24.8%−1.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1860.198−0.3
Everything else+0.1
Defensive rating, last 10ORL108.1PHI112.0

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 112.6).

ORL108.1allowed, −4.5 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.4%54.1%−0.4
Turnovers (TOV%)16.1%12.5%+5.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)21.7%24.8%+1.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1980.198±0.0
Everything else−1.7

PHI112.0allowed, −0.5 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.3%54.1%−0.2
Turnovers (TOV%)14.7%12.5%+3.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)29.6%24.8%−2.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2180.198−0.6
Everything else+0.4
Pace, last 10average 96.0

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

ORL 95.9 and PHI 96.2 → average 96.0 (league 2024-25 to date: 99.8)

Rotation points missingORL4.6PHI22.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

ORL4.6pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Gary Harris4.615.45

Source: official injury report, 2024-12-06 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

PHI22.0pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Joel Embiid22.033.03

Source: official injury report, 2024-12-06 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestORL2 daysPHI2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

ORL2days

Last played Dec 4 against PHI.

PHI2days

Last played Dec 4 against ORL.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

ORL

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Dec 4@PHI106–10241-848-2916-211316119.1113.389.5
Dec 3@NYK106–12138-879-3921-25159105.0118.6101.5
Dec 1@BKN100–9234-747-2825-322214102.093.998.0
Nov 29@BKN123–10044-8318-3517-221710125.5102.098.0
Nov 27CHI133–11946-9015-3926-28117127.9113.3104.5
Nov 25@CHA95–8437-9412-469-17813102.290.393.0
Nov 23DET111–10040-8712-3919-221317120.7109.991.5
Nov 21@LAL119–11843-9115-4018-211615122.7120.497.5
Nov 20@LAC93–10433-758-3519-2414295.9109.596.0
Nov 18@PHX109–9939-7611-2920-25108122.5110.089.5

PHI

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Dec 4ORL102–10640-8211-3011-19148113.3119.189.5
Dec 3@CHA110–10438-8216-4018-20128118.3111.893.0
Nov 30@DET111–9642-8511-3116-22148113.397.098.5
Nov 27HOU115–12243-9612-3317-23148102.7109.9101.0
Nov 24LAC99–12534-869-3922-26139102.1130.296.5
Nov 22BKN113–9841-9216-4315-201114122.8107.791.5
Nov 20@MEM111–11739-8711-3322-241414111.0117.0100.0
Nov 18@MIA89–10635-8410-419-1214286.4105.0102.0
Nov 15@ORL86–9829-7210-3118-2116692.5106.592.5
Nov 13CLE106–11441-9214-4310-111112110.4116.397.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2024-25 surprise games
29%
pregame chance the forecast gave PHI, the winner
the forecast favored ORL
17 pts
margin miss
forecast −9, actual +8 for PHI
73rd
most surprising result of 2024-25
of 1,309 graded games
269th
largest margin miss of 2024-25
outcome surprise 1.23 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statORLPHI
Final score94102
Field goals33–78 · 42.3%38–79 · 48.1%
Three-pointers13–46 · 28.3%7–26 · 26.9%
Free throws15–17 · 88.2%19–29 · 65.5%
Rebounds3837
Assists2123
Turnovers1915
Steals811
Blocks60

How the model does with these teams over time: Orlando Magic · Philadelphia 76ers

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (PHI)−9+8+17
Total points213196−17
ORL points11194−17
PHI points102102±0

Score by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
ORL27141835–94
PHI25252131–102

Recent form before this game

Orlando Magic

DateOpponentResult
Dec 4 at PHI W 106–102
Dec 3 at NYK L 106–121
Dec 1 at BKN W 100–92
Nov 29 at BKN W 123–100
Nov 27 vs CHI W 133–119

Philadelphia 76ers

DateOpponentResult
Dec 4 vs ORL L 102–106
Dec 3 at CHA W 110–104
Nov 30 at DET W 111–96
Nov 27 vs HOU L 115–122
Nov 24 vs LAC L 99–125

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Dec 4 2024-25 ORL at PHI ORL 106 – 102 PHI
Nov 15 2024-25 PHI at ORL PHI 86 – 98 ORL
Apr 12 2023-24 ORL at PHI ORL 113 – 125 PHI
Jan 19 2023-24 PHI at ORL PHI 124 – 109 ORL
Dec 27 2023-24 PHI at ORL PHI 112 – 92 ORL