2022-23 · Regular Season · Final

Philadelphia 76ers at Brooklyn Nets

Sunday, April 9, 2023 · tip-off time not recorded

PHI 1–2@BKN 3–5 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
PHI Philadelphia 76ers	111	134	+23
BKN Brooklyn Nets (home)	113	105	−8

Forecast: Brooklyn Nets to win, 55% win probability, projected margin 2.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	PHI	BKN
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1604	1530
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	−4
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	+4.0	+1.2
Games played this season	81	81
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	116.0	119.4
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	119.0	112.4
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	95.9
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	102.9	68.7
Rest days	2	2
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingPHI1604BKN1530

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

PHI1604

Ended last season at 1596 → started this one at 1572
First 71 games: +83.0
Last 10 games: −51.9

W@CHI116–91+16.0
L@GSW112–120−11.3
L@PHX105–125−20.2
L@DEN111–116−6.3
WDAL116–108+3.4
WTOR117–110+4.1
L@MIL104–117−10.7
WBOS103–101+4.1
LMIA101–129−37.9
W@ATL136–131+6.9

BKN1530

Ended last season at 1525 → started this one at 1518
First 71 games: −16.4
Last 10 games: +28.2

LCLE109–115−6.6
LCLE114–116−3.9
W@MIA129–100+30.8
L@ORL106–119−12.1
WHOU123–114+2.4
WATL124–107+10.4
WUTA111–110+2.0
LMIN102–107−9.4
W@DET123–108+6.1
WORL101–84+8.5

Season scoring marginPHI+4.0BKN+1.2

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

PHI+4.0

Scores 115.0, allows 111.0 over 81 games: +4.0 a game.

BKN+1.2

Scores 113.5, allows 112.2 over 81 games: +1.2 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10PHI116.0BKN119.4

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 114.2).

PHI116.0scored, +1.8 vs league

Factor	PHI	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	56.0%	54.7%	+2.0
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.2%	12.0%	−0.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	21.7%	23.8%	−0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.247	0.211	+1.0
Everything else			+0.1

BKN119.4scored, +5.2 vs league

Factor	BKN	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.4%	54.7%	−0.4
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.3%	12.0%	+2.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	26.0%	23.8%	+1.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.222	0.211	+0.3
Everything else			+1.9

Defensive rating, last 10PHI119.0BKN112.4

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 114.2).

PHI119.0allowed, +4.8 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	57.0%	54.7%	−3.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.3%	12.0%	−1.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	25.1%	23.8%	−0.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.184	0.211	+0.8
Everything else			−0.5

BKN112.4allowed, −1.8 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.1%	54.7%	+3.9
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.1%	12.0%	−1.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	26.4%	23.8%	−1.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.197	0.211	+0.4
Everything else			−0.1

Pace, last 10average 95.9

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

PHI 95.6 and BKN 96.1 → average 95.9 (league 2022-23 to date: 99.8)

Rotation points missingPHI102.9BKN68.7

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

PHI102.9pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Joel Embiid	29.6	31.7	8
Tyrese Maxey	22.1	36.4	8
James Harden	16.6	35.5	5
Tobias Harris	13.4	31.6	8
De'Anthony Melton	9.0	27.4	9
Georges Niang	7.8	20.6	10
P.J. Tucker	4.3	24.3	9

Source: official injury report, 2023-04-09 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

BKN68.7pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Cameron Johnson	16.6	30.5	10
Spencer Dinwiddie	14.9	35.8	10
Nic Claxton	13.2	32.2	10
Royce O'Neale	8.7	28.6	9
Dorian Finney-Smith	8.3	25.3	9
Joe Harris	7.0	15.1	10

Source: official injury report, 2023-04-09 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.

RestPHI2 daysBKN2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

PHI2days

Last played Apr 7 against ATL.

BKN2days

Last played Apr 7 against ORL.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

PHI

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Apr 7	@ATL	136–131	51-102	11-22	23-29	20	13	112.4	109.2	109.1
Apr 6	MIA	101–129	39-76	10-36	13-15	15	3	105.2	133.0	96.5
Apr 4	BOS	103–101	39-78	11-29	14-16	10	6	115.7	113.5	89.0
Apr 2	@MIL	104–117	40-87	12-36	12-13	11	11	113.0	125.8	92.5
Mar 31	TOR	117–110	41-73	12-31	23-25	16	9	130.0	122.2	90.0
Mar 29	DAL	116–108	37-80	17-36	25-30	10	11	124.7	116.1	93.0
Mar 27	@DEN	111–116	43-89	8-30	17-22	11	11	114.4	118.4	97.5
Mar 25	@PHX	105–125	34-78	13-31	24-27	12	8	111.7	135.9	93.0
Mar 24	@GSW	112–120	38-78	8-29	28-34	10	4	110.9	120.0	100.5
Mar 22	@CHI	116–91	39-82	16-37	22-26	15	11	122.1	95.8	95.0

BKN

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Apr 7	ORL	101–84	35-89	9-42	22-25	9	10	103.1	84.8	98.5
Apr 5	@DET	123–108	45-86	17-43	16-23	11	11	132.3	116.1	93.0
Apr 4	MIN	102–107	39-90	13-35	11-14	9	7	107.4	113.8	94.5
Apr 2	UTA	111–110	38-86	9-32	26-34	8	7	108.8	107.8	102.0
Mar 31	ATL	124–107	49-88	15-33	11-13	12	9	130.5	111.5	95.5
Mar 29	HOU	123–114	44-82	17-35	18-27	12	8	126.8	116.3	97.5
Mar 26	@ORL	106–119	37-91	8-35	24-28	15	15	106.0	119.0	100.0
Mar 25	@MIA	129–100	44-89	18-40	23-25	6	17	146.6	113.6	88.0
Mar 23	CLE	114–116	39-81	12-34	24-27	15	9	117.5	119.6	97.0
Mar 21	CLE	109–115	41-92	9-33	18-23	16	19	114.7	121.1	95.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2022-23 surprise games

45%

pregame chance the forecast gave PHI, the winner

the forecast favored BKN

31 pts

margin miss

forecast +2, actual −29 for BKN

343rd

most surprising result of 2022-23

of 1,314 graded games

22nd

largest margin miss of 2022-23

outcome surprise 0.80 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	PHI	BKN
Final score	134	105
Field goals	53–101 · 52.5%	35–83 · 42.2%
Three-pointers	14–32 · 43.8%	12–32 · 37.5%
Free throws	14–19 · 73.7%	23–28 · 82.1%
Rebounds	50	42
Assists	31	22
Turnovers	13	18
Steals	10	6
Blocks	5	6

How the model does with these teams over time: Philadelphia 76ers · Brooklyn Nets

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (BKN)	+2	−29	−31
Total points	224	239	+15
PHI points	111	134	+23
BKN points	113	105	−8

Recent form before this game