The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Apr 25

2025-26 · Playoffs · Final

Detroit Pistons at Orlando Magic

Saturday, April 25, 2026 · tip-off 1:00 PM ET

DET 2–4@ORL 3–4 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: DET 55 percent, ORL 45 percent. DET Pistons 55% proj. 112 · final 105 ORL Magic · home 45% proj. 110 · final 113
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
DET Detroit Pistons 112 105 −7
ORL Orlando Magic (home) 110 113 +3

Forecast: Detroit Pistons to win, 55% win probability, projected margin 2.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

No saved inputs are stored with this game's forecast.

The result against the forecast

2025-26 surprise games
45%
pregame chance the forecast gave ORL, the winner
the forecast favored DET
10 pts
margin miss
forecast −2, actual +8 for ORL
323rd
most surprising result of 2025-26
of 1,309 graded games
605th
largest margin miss of 2025-26
outcome surprise 0.80 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statDETORL
Final score105113
Field goals37–85 · 43.5%36–89 · 40.4%
Three-pointers11–32 · 34.4%15–33 · 45.5%
Free throws20–24 · 83.3%26–33 · 78.8%
Rebounds4248
Assists2422
Turnovers1614
Steals68
Blocks128

How the model does with these teams over time: Detroit Pistons · Orlando Magic

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (ORL)−2+8+10
Total points222218−4
DET points112105−7
ORL points110113+3

Injury report

Official NBA injury report, 2026-04-25 17:30 ET (the latest stored report before the forecast was saved). Two-way and G League assignments are omitted. The model counts players listed Out or Doubtful; Questionable players are treated as available.

Detroit Pistons

No players listed.

Orlando Magic

  • Out Jonathan Isaac · Left Knee;Sprain

Recent form before this game

Detroit Pistons

DateOpponentResult
Apr 22 vs ORL W 98–83
Apr 19 vs ORL L 101–112
Apr 12 at IND W 133–121
Apr 10 at CHA W 118–100
Apr 8 vs MIL W 137–111

Orlando Magic

DateOpponentResult
Apr 22 at DET L 83–98
Apr 19 at DET W 112–101
Apr 12 at BOS L 108–113
Apr 10 at CHI W 127–103
Apr 8 vs MIN W 132–120

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Apr 22 2025-26 ORL at DET ORL 83 – 98 DET
Apr 19 2025-26 ORL at DET ORL 112 – 101 DET
Apr 6 2025-26 DET at ORL DET 107 – 123 ORL
Mar 1 2025-26 DET at ORL DET 106 – 92 ORL
Nov 28 2025-26 ORL at DET ORL 112 – 109 DET