2024-25 · Playoffs · Final
Denver Nuggets at Oklahoma City Thunder
Monday, May 5, 2025 · tip-off time not recorded
DEN 1–3@OKC 0–7 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗
Forecast and result
| Team | Projected | Final | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN Denver Nuggets | 107 | 121 | +14 |
| OKC Oklahoma City Thunder (home) | 117 | 119 | +2 |
Forecast: Oklahoma City Thunder to win, 75% win probability, projected margin 10.
Inside the Forecast
How the inputs are builtWhat the model received
| Input | DEN | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. | 1612 | 1771 |
| Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court | +230 | |
| Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. | +3.5 | +12.8 |
| Games played this season | 89 | 87 |
| Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. | 118.0 | 119.1 |
| Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. | 115.6 | 108.0 |
| Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. | 97.8 | |
| Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Rest days | 2 | 5 |
| Second night of a back-to-back | No | No |
| Playoff series state | 0 home series wins | |
This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked
Built from the box scores
How the breakdowns workWhere each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.
Elo ratingDEN1612OKC1771
Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.
DEN1612
- Ended last season at 1649 → started this one at 1612
- First 79 games: −51.5
- Last 10 games: +51.2
- W@SAC124–116+9.5
- WMEM117–109+6.0
- W@HOU126–111+18.8
- WLAC112–110+4.6
- LLAC102–105−6.0
- L@LAC83–117−13.9
- W@LAC101–99+7.9
- WLAC131–115+14.2
- L@LAC105–111−4.8
- WLAC120–101+14.9
OKC1771
- Ended last season at 1657 → started this one at 1618
- First 77 games: +185.6
- Last 10 games: −32.3
- L@HOU111–125−19.4
- LLAL99–126−46.6
- WLAL136–120+5.2
- W@PHX125–112+4.0
- W@UTA145–111+3.5
- W@NOP115–100+2.1
- WMEM131–80+8.9
- WMEM118–99+3.9
- W@MEM114–108+3.8
- W@MEM117–115+2.3
Season scoring marginDEN+3.5OKC+12.8
Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.
DEN+3.5
Scores 119.7, allows 116.2 over 89 games: +3.5 a game.
OKC+12.8
Scores 120.2, allows 107.3 over 87 games: +12.8 a game.
Offensive rating, last 10DEN118.0OKC119.1
Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 113.7).
DEN118.0scored, +4.3 vs league
| Factor | DEN | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 54.9% | 54.4% | +0.8 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 11.1% | 12.0% | +1.3 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 28.5% | 25.2% | +1.5 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.201 | 0.192 | +0.2 | |
| Everything else | +0.6 |
OKC119.1scored, +5.4 vs league
| Factor | OKC | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 54.8% | 54.4% | +0.6 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 8.7% | 12.0% | +4.7 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 24.9% | 25.2% | −0.1 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.180 | 0.192 | −0.3 | |
| Everything else | +0.6 |
Defensive rating, last 10DEN115.6OKC108.0
Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 113.7).
DEN115.6allowed, +1.9 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 55.0% | 54.4% | −0.9 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 10.3% | 12.0% | −2.4 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 22.3% | 25.2% | +1.3 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.155 | 0.192 | +1.1 | |
| Everything else | −1.1 |
OKC108.0allowed, −5.7 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 51.8% | 54.4% | +3.9 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 14.0% | 12.0% | +2.8 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 26.7% | 25.2% | −0.7 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.214 | 0.192 | −0.6 | |
| Everything else | +0.3 |
Pace, last 10average 97.8
Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.
DEN 93.9 and OKC 101.7 → average 97.8 (league 2024-25 to date: 99.4)
Rotation points missingDEN0.0OKC0.0
Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.
DEN0.0pts/g missing
Every rotation player was available.
Source: official injury report, 2025-05-05 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.
OKC0.0pts/g missing
Every rotation player was available.
Source: official injury report, 2025-05-05 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.
RestDEN2 daysOKC5 days
Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.
DEN2days
Last played May 3 against LAC.
OKC5days
Last played Apr 26 against MEM (9 days, capped at 5).
The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals
DEN
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 3 | LAC | 120–101 | 47-90 | 11-29 | 15-21 | 12 | 11 | 123.7 | 104.1 | 97.0 |
| May 1 | @LAC | 105–111 | 44-84 | 11-27 | 6-9 | 12 | 10 | 119.3 | 124.7 | 88.5 |
| Apr 29 | LAC | 131–115 | 48-86 | 17-33 | 18-23 | 9 | 8 | 139.4 | 121.1 | 94.5 |
| Apr 26 | @LAC | 101–99 | 40-87 | 10-29 | 11-16 | 12 | 12 | 111.0 | 110.0 | 90.5 |
| Apr 24 | @LAC | 83–117 | 31-77 | 7-26 | 14-20 | 16 | 11 | 92.2 | 133.0 | 89.0 |
| Apr 21 | LAC | 102–105 | 37-79 | 14-32 | 14-22 | 20 | 15 | 110.9 | 111.7 | 93.0 |
| Apr 19 | LAC | 112–110 | 41-94 | 9-27 | 21-27 | 11 | 12 | 109.8 | 108.9 | 91.9 |
| Apr 13 | @HOU | 126–111 | 45-88 | 10-29 | 26-31 | 9 | 11 | 127.3 | 113.3 | 98.5 |
| Apr 11 | MEM | 117–109 | 44-91 | 5-24 | 24-31 | 12 | 11 | 114.7 | 105.8 | 102.5 |
| Apr 9 | @SAC | 124–116 | 43-86 | 13-34 | 25-31 | 7 | 12 | 131.9 | 123.4 | 94.0 |
OKC
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 26 | @MEM | 117–115 | 41-94 | 7-35 | 28-35 | 8 | 12 | 114.7 | 111.7 | 102.5 |
| Apr 24 | @MEM | 114–108 | 39-86 | 13-38 | 23-33 | 11 | 12 | 115.2 | 108.0 | 99.5 |
| Apr 22 | MEM | 118–99 | 45-104 | 15-45 | 13-16 | 7 | 16 | 118.0 | 99.0 | 100.0 |
| Apr 20 | MEM | 131–80 | 50-99 | 17-48 | 14-15 | 15 | 12 | 121.3 | 73.4 | 108.5 |
| Apr 13 | @NOP | 115–100 | 41-98 | 9-47 | 24-27 | 10 | 14 | 115.0 | 99.0 | 100.5 |
| Apr 11 | @UTA | 145–111 | 56-100 | 24-53 | 9-13 | 10 | 4 | 135.5 | 102.8 | 107.5 |
| Apr 9 | @PHX | 125–112 | 45-86 | 12-30 | 23-27 | 10 | 7 | 123.8 | 109.8 | 101.5 |
| Apr 8 | LAL | 136–120 | 52-104 | 18-37 | 14-20 | 6 | 15 | 136.0 | 121.2 | 99.5 |
| Apr 6 | LAL | 99–126 | 39-90 | 12-37 | 9-12 | 7 | 5 | 103.1 | 132.6 | 95.5 |
| Apr 4 | @HOU | 111–125 | 43-89 | 13-35 | 12-15 | 15 | 7 | 108.8 | 122.5 | 102.0 |
Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.
The result against the forecast
2024-25 surprise gamesSurprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.
Team box score
What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.
| Team stat | DEN | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Final score | 121 | 119 |
| Field goals | 42–95 · 44.2% | 42–100 · 42.0% |
| Three-pointers | 10–32 · 31.3% | 15–43 · 34.9% |
| Free throws | 27–33 · 81.8% | 20–28 · 71.4% |
| Rebounds | 63 | 43 |
| Assists | 18 | 27 |
| Turnovers | 18 | 9 |
| Steals | 6 | 12 |
| Blocks | 5 | 11 |
How the model does with these teams over time: Denver Nuggets · Oklahoma City Thunder
Where the forecast differed from the result
| Measure | Forecast | Actual | Actual − forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home margin (OKC) | +10 | −2 | −12 |
| Total points | 224 | 240 | +16 |
| DEN points | 107 | 121 | +14 |
| OKC points | 117 | 119 | +2 |
Recent form before this game
Previous meetings
| Date | Matchup | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 10 2024-25 | DEN at OKC | DEN 140 – 127 OKC |
| Mar 9 2024-25 | DEN at OKC | DEN 103 – 127 OKC |
| Nov 6 2024-25 | OKC at DEN | OKC 122 – 124 DEN |
| Oct 24 2024-25 | OKC at DEN | OKC 102 – 87 DEN |
| Jan 31 2023-24 | DEN at OKC | DEN 100 – 105 OKC |