2024-25 · Playoffs · Final

Oklahoma City Thunder at Minnesota Timberwolves

Saturday, May 24, 2025 · tip-off time not recorded

OKC 0–7@MIN 4–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
OKC Oklahoma City Thunder	107	101	−6
MIN Minnesota Timberwolves (home)	102	143	+41

Forecast: Oklahoma City Thunder to win, 61% win probability, projected margin 5.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	OKC	MIN
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1781	1677
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	−34
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	+12.7	+4.7
Games played this season	96	94
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	115.2	111.4
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	103.6	109.3
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	98.0
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	0.0	0.0
Rest days	2	2
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No
Playoff series state	0 home series wins

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingOKC1781MIN1677

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

OKC1781

Ended last season at 1657 → started this one at 1618
First 86 games: +151.2
Last 10 games: +11.7

W@MEM117–115+2.3
LDEN119–121−9.3
WDEN149–106+11.2
L@DEN104–113−13.3
W@DEN92–87+5.4
WDEN112–105+3.2
L@DEN107–119−15.4
WDEN125–93+9.8
WMIN114–88+11.0
WMIN118–103+6.8

MIN1677

Ended last season at 1657 → started this one at 1618
First 84 games: +43.1
Last 10 games: +15.6

WLAL116–104+6.1
WLAL116–113+2.7
W@LAL103–96+7.5
LGSW88–99−16.8
WGSW117–93+12.4
W@GSW102–97+7.4
W@GSW117–110+8.4
WGSW121–110+5.7
L@OKC88–114−11.0
L@OKC103–118−6.8

Season scoring marginOKC+12.7MIN+4.7

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

OKC+12.7

Scores 119.8, allows 107.0 over 96 games: +12.7 a game.

MIN+4.7

Scores 113.2, allows 108.6 over 94 games: +4.7 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10OKC115.2MIN111.4

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 113.7).

OKC115.2scored, +1.5 vs league

Factor	OKC	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.3%	54.3%	−3.1
Turnovers (TOV%)	9.1%	12.0%	+4.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	24.3%	25.3%	−0.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.224	0.193	+0.9
Everything else			+0.0

MIN111.4scored, −2.3 vs league

Factor	MIN	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.6%	54.3%	−2.6
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.2%	12.0%	−1.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	28.2%	25.3%	+1.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.208	0.193	+0.5
Everything else			+0.2

Defensive rating, last 10OKC103.6MIN109.3

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 113.7).

OKC103.6allowed, −10.1 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	48.1%	54.3%	+9.3
Turnovers (TOV%)	14.6%	12.0%	+3.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	28.0%	25.3%	−1.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.253	0.193	−1.7
Everything else			+0.0

MIN109.3allowed, −4.3 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.3%	54.3%	+3.0
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.5%	12.0%	+0.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	26.8%	25.3%	−0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.229	0.193	−1.0
Everything else			+2.3

Pace, last 10average 98.0

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

Couldn't be rebuilt exactly from the stored box scores.

Rotation points missingOKC0.0MIN0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

OKC0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2025-05-24 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.

MIN0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2025-05-24 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestOKC2 daysMIN2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

OKC2days

Last played May 22 against MIN.

MIN2days

Last played May 22 against OKC.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

OKC

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
May 22	MIN	118–103	45-90	9-33	19-24	6	9	122.9	107.3	96.0
May 20	MIN	114–88	41-82	11-21	21-26	12	9	117.5	90.7	97.0
May 18	DEN	125–93	47-96	12-39	19-24	9	15	126.3	92.1	100.0
May 15	@DEN	107–119	43-92	11-40	10-16	11	7	103.9	115.5	103.0
May 13	DEN	112–105	41-82	12-29	18-23	14	8	114.3	108.2	97.5
May 11	@DEN	92–87	31-87	10-41	20-26	14	15	93.9	88.8	98.0
May 9	@DEN	104–113	40-104	9-35	15-22	11	18	100.0	105.6	95.5
May 7	DEN	149–106	50-89	16-36	33-36	9	8	144.7	101.9	103.5
May 5	DEN	119–121	42-100	15-43	20-28	9	13	113.3	114.2	105.5
Apr 26	@MEM	117–115	41-94	7-35	28-35	8	12	114.7	111.7	102.5

MIN

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
May 22	@OKC	103–118	36-87	11-39	20-26	14	13	107.3	122.9	96.0
May 20	@OKC	88–114	29-83	15-51	15-21	17	12	90.7	117.5	97.0
May 14	GSW	121–110	49-78	13-31	10-15	20	6	121.0	110.0	100.0
May 12	@GSW	117–110	39-79	16-34	23-26	19	6	114.7	107.8	102.0
May 10	@GSW	102–97	36-82	13-34	17-21	18	13	108.5	103.2	94.0
May 8	GSW	117–93	44-87	16-37	13-20	12	11	123.2	96.9	95.5
May 6	GSW	88–99	34-86	5-29	15-17	16	12	94.6	104.2	94.0
Apr 30	@LAL	103–96	36-89	7-47	24-33	11	18	108.4	101.1	95.0
Apr 27	LAL	116–113	38-90	14-36	26-33	9	18	126.1	121.5	92.5
Apr 25	LAL	116–104	44-91	13-36	15-21	8	9	119.6	108.3	96.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2024-25 surprise games

39%

pregame chance the forecast gave MIN, the winner

the forecast favored OKC

47 pts

margin miss

forecast −5, actual +42 for MIN

217th

most surprising result of 2024-25

of 1,309 graded games

3rd

largest margin miss of 2024-25

outcome surprise 0.95 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	OKC	MIN
Final score	101	143
Field goals	35–86 · 40.7%	55–96 · 57.3%
Three-pointers	14–44 · 31.8%	20–40 · 50.0%
Free throws	17–19 · 89.5%	13–17 · 76.5%
Rebounds	31	50
Assists	19	30
Turnovers	14	10
Steals	5	6
Blocks	3	3

How the model does with these teams over time: Oklahoma City Thunder · Minnesota Timberwolves

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (MIN)	−5	+42	+47
Total points	209	244	+35
OKC points	107	101	−6
MIN points	102	143	+41

Recent form before this game