2023-24 · Playoffs · Final

Cleveland Cavaliers at Orlando Magic

Thursday, April 25, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded

CLE 3–5@ORL 1–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
CLE Cleveland Cavaliers	106	83	−23
ORL Orlando Magic (home)	107	121	+14

Forecast: Orlando Magic to win, 57% win probability, projected margin 1.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	CLE	ORL
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1527	1506
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+49
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	+2.6	+1.7
Games played this season	84	84
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	110.5	108.7
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	112.3	111.2
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	97.5
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	0.0	0.0
Rest days	3	3
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No
Playoff series state	0 home series wins

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingCLE1527ORL1506

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

CLE1527

Ended last season at 1565 → started this one at 1549
First 74 games: −5.0
Last 10 games: −17.0

L@DEN101–130−10.9
W@UTA129–113+9.8
L@PHX101–122−10.0
L@LAL97–116−10.4
L@LAC118–120−3.3
WMEM110–98+3.5
WIND129–120+9.6
LCHA110–120−23.4
WORL97–83+10.4
WORL96–86+7.7

ORL1506

Ended last season at 1447 → started this one at 1460
First 74 games: +70.8
Last 10 games: −25.1

WPOR104–103+1.0
W@NOP117–108+15.1
L@CHA115–124−17.4
WCHI113–98+8.3
L@HOU106–118−10.7
L@MIL99–117−11.0
L@PHI113–125−9.0
WMIL113–88+16.7
L@CLE83–97−10.4
L@CLE86–96−7.7

Season scoring marginCLE+2.6ORL+1.7

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

CLE+2.6

Scores 112.2, allows 109.6 over 84 games: +2.6 a game.

ORL+1.7

Scores 109.8, allows 108.2 over 84 games: +1.7 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10CLE110.5ORL108.7

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 114.5).

CLE110.5scored, −4.1 vs league

Factor	CLE	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.7%	54.7%	−1.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.8%	11.6%	−1.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	23.7%	24.1%	−0.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.189	0.194	−0.1
Everything else			−0.4

ORL108.7scored, −5.8 vs league

Factor	ORL	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	50.3%	54.7%	−6.6
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.8%	11.6%	−0.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	22.1%	24.1%	−0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.231	0.194	+1.1
Everything else			+1.0

Defensive rating, last 10CLE112.3ORL111.2

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 114.5).

CLE112.3allowed, −2.2 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.6%	54.7%	−1.3
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.4%	11.6%	+2.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	21.8%	24.1%	+1.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.186	0.194	+0.2
Everything else			−0.3

ORL111.2allowed, −3.3 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.3%	54.7%	−0.8
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.9%	11.6%	+3.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	21.7%	24.1%	+1.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.227	0.194	−0.9
Everything else			+0.7

Pace, last 10average 97.5

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

CLE 98.5 and ORL 96.5 → average 97.5 (league 2023-24 to date: 99.1)

Rotation points missingCLE0.0ORL0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

CLE0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2024-04-25 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

ORL0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2024-04-25 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

RestCLE3 daysORL3 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

CLE3days

Last played Apr 22 against ORL.

ORL3days

Last played Apr 22 against CLE.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

CLE

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Apr 22	ORL	96–86	34-82	12-39	16-26	15	15	101.1	90.5	95.0
Apr 20	ORL	97–83	36-81	8-30	17-21	17	10	101.0	86.5	96.0
Apr 14	CHA	110–120	44-93	16-33	6-9	14	12	113.4	123.7	97.0
Apr 12	IND	129–120	50-95	13-32	16-23	9	11	126.5	116.5	102.5
Apr 10	MEM	110–98	37-82	15-37	21-29	13	12	113.4	101.0	97.0
Apr 7	@LAC	118–120	42-88	11-30	23-27	11	7	118.0	120.0	100.0
Apr 6	@LAL	97–116	39-90	11-35	8-12	18	11	96.0	116.0	100.5
Apr 3	@PHX	101–122	39-83	7-26	16-19	15	6	102.0	123.2	99.0
Apr 2	@UTA	129–113	46-85	16-39	21-24	13	8	129.0	113.0	100.0
Mar 31	@DEN	101–130	38-82	8-25	17-21	15	4	104.1	132.7	97.5

ORL

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Apr 22	@CLE	86–96	29-80	9-35	19-26	16	11	90.5	101.1	95.0
Apr 20	@CLE	83–97	28-86	8-37	19-30	12	11	86.5	101.0	96.0
Apr 14	MIL	113–88	42-85	11-35	18-19	11	7	120.2	92.6	94.5
Apr 12	@PHI	113–125	43-95	8-27	19-25	11	10	108.7	121.4	103.5
Apr 10	@MIL	99–117	36-78	11-30	16-23	15	5	104.2	121.9	95.5
Apr 9	@HOU	106–118	39-86	7-24	21-23	14	10	107.1	118.0	99.5
Apr 7	CHI	113–98	42-90	11-34	18-19	10	10	118.9	104.3	94.5
Apr 5	@CHA	115–124	42-94	9-38	22-26	10	15	118.6	129.2	96.5
Apr 3	@NOP	117–108	41-80	13-32	22-30	13	7	123.2	114.9	94.5
Apr 1	POR	104–103	36-76	11-32	21-27	15	6	109.5	107.3	95.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2023-24 surprise games

57%

pregame chance the forecast gave ORL, the winner

ORL was the forecast favorite

37 pts

margin miss

forecast +1, actual +38 for ORL

655th

most surprising result of 2023-24

of 1,312 graded games

18th

largest margin miss of 2023-24

outcome surprise 0.57 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	CLE	ORL
Final score	83	121
Field goals	32–82 · 39.0%	47–92 · 51.1%
Three-pointers	8–34 · 23.5%	13–37 · 35.1%
Free throws	11–13 · 84.6%	14–16 · 87.5%
Rebounds	32	51
Assists	24	24
Turnovers	14	8
Steals	2	7
Blocks	8	3

How the model does with these teams over time: Cleveland Cavaliers · Orlando Magic

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (ORL)	+1	+38	+37
Total points	213	204	−9
CLE points	106	83	−23
ORL points	107	121	+14

Score by quarter

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Final
CLE	21	24	16	22	–	83
ORL	31	30	35	25	–	121

Recent form before this game