2025-26 · Playoffs · Final

Minnesota Timberwolves at Denver Nuggets

Monday, April 27, 2026 · tip-off 10:30 PM ET

MIN 2–9@DEN 4–4 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
MIN Minnesota Timberwolves	114	113	−1
DEN Denver Nuggets (home)	118	125	+7

Forecast: Denver Nuggets to win, 60% win probability, projected margin 4.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

No saved inputs are stored with this game's forecast.

The result against the forecast

2025-26 surprise games

60%

pregame chance the forecast gave DEN, the winner

DEN was the forecast favorite

8 pts

margin miss

forecast +4, actual +12 for DEN

679th

most surprising result of 2025-26

of 1,309 graded games

714th

largest margin miss of 2025-26

outcome surprise 0.50 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	MIN	DEN
Final score	113	125
Field goals	41–81 · 50.6%	47–83 · 56.6%
Three-pointers	12–28 · 42.9%	11–29 · 37.9%
Free throws	19–23 · 82.6%	20–25 · 80.0%
Rebounds	38	29
Assists	26	35
Turnovers	25	16
Steals	6	16
Blocks	2	6

How the model does with these teams over time: Minnesota Timberwolves · Denver Nuggets

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (DEN)	+4	+12	+8
Total points	232	238	+6
MIN points	114	113	−1
DEN points	118	125	+7

Injury report

Official NBA injury report, 2026-04-27 17:30 ET (the latest stored report before the forecast was saved). Two-way and G League assignments are omitted. The model counts players listed Out or Doubtful; Questionable players are treated as available.