The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Jan 24

2024-25 · Regular Season · Final

Cleveland Cavaliers at Philadelphia 76ers

Friday, January 24, 2025 · tip-off time not recorded

CLE 0–1@PHI 2–3 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: CLE 77 percent, PHI 23 percent. CLE Cavaliers 77% proj. 116 · final 129 PHI 76ers · home 23% proj. 104 · final 132
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
CLE Cleveland Cavaliers 116 129 +13
PHI Philadelphia 76ers (home) 104 132 +28

Forecast: Cleveland Cavaliers to win, 77% win probability, projected margin 12.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputCLEPHI
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 16811422
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court −190
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +10.1−4.9
Games played this season 4342
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 119.7112.0
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 115.7119.7
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 97.8
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 19.416.8
Rest days 23
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingCLE1681PHI1422

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

CLE1681

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1523 → started this one at 1517
  2. First 33 games: +155.3
  3. Last 10 games: +8.6
  • W@DAL134–122+11.4
  • WCHA115–105+1.0
  • WOKC129–122+8.2
  • WTOR132–126+0.8
  • LIND93–108−24.2
  • W@IND127–117+10.0
  • L@OKC114–134−8.5
  • W@MIN124–117+8.0
  • WPHX118–92+6.1
  • L@HOU108–109−4.2

PHI1422

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1532 → started this one at 1524
  2. First 32 games: −63.7
  3. Last 10 games: −38.8
  • W@BKN123–94+21.4
  • LPHX99–109−13.4
  • WWAS109–103+2.1
  • LNOP115–123−17.0
  • L@ORL99–104−4.2
  • LOKC102–118−4.8
  • LNYK119–125−5.6
  • L@IND102–115−4.5
  • L@MIL109–123−5.8
  • L@DEN109–144−7.0
Season scoring marginCLE+10.1PHI−4.9

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

CLE+10.1

Scores 121.7, allows 111.6 over 43 games: +10.1 a game.

PHI−4.9

Scores 107.5, allows 112.4 over 42 games: −4.9 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10CLE119.7PHI112.0

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 112.7).

CLE119.7scored, +6.9 vs league

FactorCLELeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.4%54.1%+1.9
Turnovers (TOV%)10.6%12.3%+2.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.3%24.8%+1.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1970.192+0.1
Everything else+1.3

PHI112.0scored, −0.7 vs league

FactorPHILeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.5%54.1%−0.9
Turnovers (TOV%)10.9%12.3%+2.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)20.3%24.8%−2.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1860.192−0.2
Everything else+0.4
Defensive rating, last 10CLE115.7PHI119.7

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 112.7).

CLE115.7allowed, +3.0 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.4%54.1%−1.9
Turnovers (TOV%)11.2%12.3%−1.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)24.3%24.8%+0.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1490.192+1.2
Everything else−0.8

PHI119.7allowed, +6.9 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)58.6%54.1%−6.7
Turnovers (TOV%)13.2%12.3%+1.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)31.1%24.8%−2.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1930.192−0.0
Everything else+1.3
Pace, last 10average 97.8

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

CLE 99.7 and PHI 96.0 → average 97.8 (league 2024-25 to date: 99.7)

Rotation points missingCLE19.4PHI16.8

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

CLE19.4pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Evan Mobley19.430.07

Source: official injury report, 2025-01-24 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

PHI16.8pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Caleb Martin9.533.34
Andre Drummond7.318.43

Source: official injury report, 2025-01-24 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestCLE2 daysPHI3 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

CLE2days

Last played Jan 22 against HOU.

PHI3days

Last played Jan 21 against DEN.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

CLE

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Jan 22@HOU108–10941-9713-4113-191318112.5114.795.5
Jan 20PHX118–9241-9519-4617-23813121.693.997.5
Jan 18@MIN124–11742-9217-4823-25713129.2120.696.5
Jan 16@OKC114–13442-9013-4217-212110106.5127.6106.0
Jan 14@IND127–11743-8915-4426-311414124.5115.8101.5
Jan 12IND93–10833-8311-4116-1813694.9109.198.5
Jan 9TOR132–12647-8918-4520-251116136.1129.997.0
Jan 8OKC129–12247-9015-3620-271512127.7122.0100.5
Jan 5CHA115–10544-9215-4312-16129115.0106.199.5
Jan 3@DAL134–12252-9815-4015-2078128.8117.3104.0

PHI

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Jan 21@DEN109–14444-9615-386-8108113.5148.596.5
Jan 19@MIL109–12339-8616-4515-2274112.4126.897.0
Jan 18@IND102–11538-8910-3416-2297105.2119.896.5
Jan 15NYK119–12546-9213-3514-141211122.7127.688.3
Jan 14OKC102–11837-8413-4415-20219103.0120.498.5
Jan 12@ORL99–10433-7212-2921-22163107.6113.092.0
Jan 10NOP115–12342-9114-3817-19910117.3125.598.0
Jan 8WAS109–10340-8815-4414-1978118.5112.092.0
Jan 6PHX99–10934-8715-4016-261012104.2113.595.5
Jan 4@BKN123–9442-8215-4024-30177116.089.5105.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2024-25 surprise games
23%
pregame chance the forecast gave PHI, the winner
the forecast favored CLE
15 pts
margin miss
forecast −12, actual +3 for PHI
31st
most surprising result of 2024-25
of 1,309 graded games
336th
largest margin miss of 2024-25
outcome surprise 1.46 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statCLEPHI
Final score129132
Field goals45–90 · 50.0%44–87 · 50.6%
Three-pointers25–52 · 48.1%21–39 · 53.8%
Free throws14–19 · 73.7%23–27 · 85.2%
Rebounds3743
Assists3023
Turnovers1618
Steals109
Blocks56

How the model does with these teams over time: Cleveland Cavaliers · Philadelphia 76ers

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (PHI)−12+3+15
Total points220261+41
CLE points116129+13
PHI points104132+28

Score by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
CLE33342933–129
PHI39253434–132

Recent form before this game

Cleveland Cavaliers

DateOpponentResult
Jan 22 at HOU L 108–109
Jan 20 vs PHX W 118–92
Jan 18 at MIN W 124–117
Jan 16 at OKC L 114–134
Jan 14 at IND W 127–117

Philadelphia 76ers

DateOpponentResult
Jan 21 at DEN L 109–144
Jan 19 at MIL L 109–123
Jan 18 at IND L 102–115
Jan 15 vs NYK L 119–125
Jan 14 vs OKC L 102–118

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Dec 21 2024-25 PHI at CLE PHI 99 – 126 CLE
Nov 13 2024-25 CLE at PHI CLE 114 – 106 PHI
Mar 29 2023-24 PHI at CLE PHI 114 – 117 CLE
Feb 23 2023-24 CLE at PHI CLE 97 – 104 PHI
Feb 12 2023-24 PHI at CLE PHI 123 – 121 CLE